Palestinian Ceasefire: More of the Same?

(Sorry for the light blogging lately, coursework is piling up.)

With all of the jubilation by diplomats and the media over the much-heralded truce between Mahmoud Abbas and Ariel Sharon, you would think that they have all forgotten the innumerable truces that Arafat called, only to do nothing to enforce them. Well, it seems that they are about to be reminded. Hamas and Hizbullah are both disregarding the truce, and Hizbullah in particular is trying to carry off as many attacks as they can.

The blogosphere has been skeptical, to say the least. Captain Ed calls this the Palestinian Triangle Offense:

[W]hen Abbas has to go to the mattresses with Hamas -- and he will, if he's serious -- he's going to be outnumbered 2-1. That means Abbas won't bother, and the resultant terrorist activity will force Israel to respond. The Palestinians will once again claim that Israel broke the truce and respond in kind, and we'll be back to square one -- just like every time this has been tried.

One definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

Meanwhile, the Big Trunk asks the obvious question:

Is there any reason to believe that the ceasefire is a prelude to peace with Israel rather than a preparation for war from a stronger position at a later date?

I remain unconvinced of Abbas's sincerity, or even if he is sincere, of his ability to actually take down Hamas and Hizbullah. I will only believe that Abbas actually means to work for peace when we begin to hear multiple reports of large-scale battles between Palestinian security and the terrorist forces. In their absence, I am cynical about the prospects for real security.